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    • Issue #14 Impact assessment for infrastructure development >
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      • Unplanned Consequences? New Zealand's experiment with urban (un)planning and infrastructure implications
      • Reflections on infrastructure, Town and Country planning and intimations of SIA in the late 1970s and early 1980s
      • SIA guidance for infrastructure and economic development projects
      • Scoping in impact assessments for infrastructure projects: Reflections on South African experiences
      • Impact Assessment for Pacific Island Infrastructure
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      • Introduction to health impact assessment: practice issues
      • International Health Impact Assessment – a personal view
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      • An integrated approach to assessing health impacts
      • Assessing the health and social impacts of transport policies and projects
      • Whither HIA in New Zealand….or just wither?
    • Issue #12 Risk Assessment: Case Studies and Approaches >
      • Introduction
      • Risk Assessment and Impact Assessment : A perspective from Victoria, Australia
      • The New and Adaptive Paradigm Needed to Manage Rising Coastal Risks
      • Reflections on Using Risk Assessments in Understanding Climate Change Adaptation Needs in Te Taitokerau Northland
      • Values-Based Impact Assessment and Emergency Management
      • Certainty about Communicating Uncertainty: Assessment of Flood Loss and Damage
      • Improving Understanding of Rockfall Geohazard Risk in New Zealand
      • Normalised New Zealand Natural Disaster Insurance Losses: 1968-2019
      • Houston, We Have a Problem - Seamless Integration of Weather and Climate Forecast for Community Resilience
      • Innovating with Online Data to Understand Risk and Impact in a Data Poor Environment
    • Impact Connector #11 Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation, and Impact Assessment: views from the Pacific >
      • Introduction
      • Climate change adaptation and mitigation, impact assessment, and decision-making: a Pacific perspective
      • Climate adaptation and impact assessment in the Pacific: overview of SPREP-sponsored presentations
      • Land and Sea: Integrated Assessment of the Temaiku Land and Urban Development Project in Kiribati
      • Strategic Environmental Assessment: Rising to the SDG Challenge
      • Coastal Engineering for Climate Change Resilience in Eastern Tongatapu, Tonga
      • Climate-induced Migration in the Pacific: The Role of New Zealand
    • Impact Connector #10 Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation >
      • Introduction
      • Is a “just transition” possible for Māori?
      • Adapting to Climate Change on Scale: Addressing the Challenge and Understanding the Impacts of Asia Mega-Cities
      • How responding to climate change might affect health, for better or for worse
      • Kanuka, Kereru and carbon capture - Assessing the effects of a programme taking a fresh look at the hill and high country land resource
      • Wairoa: Community perceptions of increased afforestation
      • Te Kākahu Kahukura Ecological Restoration project: A story within a story
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      • Tourism – the long haul ahead
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      • Building resilience in Rural Communities – a focus on mobile population groups
      • Assessing the Impacts of a New Cycle Trail: A Fieldnote
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Houston, We Have a Problem - Seamless Integration of Weather and Climate Forecast for Community Resilience

Bapon Fakhruddin and Richard Reinen-Hamill 

Tonkin + Taylor Ltd

Introduction

​The conclusions of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warn that reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is now “too little too late”, meaning that it will not achieve the long-term temperature goals identified in the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. The main findings are consistent with the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), but further highlighting the urgency of achieving carbon neutrality while also adapting to the many unavoidable effects of climate change. In New Zealand, the National Climate Change Risk Assessment conducted in 2020 identified priority climate change-related hazards for present day, 2050 and 2100 and highlighted identified 43 priority risk across five domains and the 10 most significant risks.

Climate risk is typically considered in two categories: physical risk and transitional risk. Reporting requirements for climate-related financial disclosure were proposed by New Zealand Ministry for the Environment and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MfE, 2019)[1]. The Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures recommends consideration of macroeconomic shocks or financial losses caused by storms, droughts, wildfires and other extreme events, or by changing weather patterns over time. However, currently this is not often seen in organizational climate risk assessments except within the insurance industry.  The complexity in determining climate-related physical risk is significant. Identifying consistent and accurate climate risk is necessary to inform disclosure.
​
While significant advancements have been made, forecasting short range (days-week-months-years) climate-enhanced extreme weather events is still a gap in traditional natural hazard and climate risk assessments. The need for improved weather and climate forecasting to inform multiple hazard risk assessments and subsequently, evidence-based decision making, has never been stronger. Seamless integration of weather and climate information for risk assessments is critical as the climate’s atmospheric and oceanic motions and the extreme weather they can generate are interconnected[2]. The potential increase in occurrence and intensity of extreme weather events as a result of climate change and the increasing population in vulnerable areas only reinforces this need.
​
Forecasting the impacts of short-, medium- and long-term climate variability and their relationship to extreme weather events would provide forward-looking, decision-useful information that can be included in risk planning and management.

Seamless integration of weather and climate information for risk assessment

Over the last 20 years, Tonkin + Taylor has conducted impact assessments for weather and climate information and designed early warning systems for multiple hazards. In this work, it became evident that information about future hazards over different time scales (days, weeks, months, years, decades and over 100 years) is key to risk-based decision making. Integrating weather and climate predictions into the risk assessment framework would provide the different time scales required to adequately inform risk assessments and appropriate actions.

The benefits of seamless hydrometeorological predictions are well tested in many parts of the world and currently under research (Wetterhall et al., 2018; Fakhruddin et al., 2021) (Figure 1). A framework for integrated, system-based climate risk evaluation is needed and may be developed in collaboration between scientists and experts working in climate and meteorology fields.
Figure 1: Range and scale of natural hazards due to climate change (Modified from WMO, 2015)
Figure 1: Range and scale of natural hazards due to climate change (Modified from WMO, 2015)

Our future expectations

The world is moving to the Fifth Industrial Revolution, a new Renaissance Age (WEF, 2019). Our technology is moving rapidly to ensure creativity and common purpose to use for open access and FAIR (i.e., findable, accessible, inter-operable and re-usable) principles. New Zealand communities have long been waiting to see an inter-operable, open access, transparent, intuitive, flexible, collaborative, reliable, expert supported, secure, open sourced, fast and user-friendly visual platform for risk assessment. RiskScape 2.0 - a risk modelling tool under development - could support impacts from natural hazards and climate change (GNS, 2020). 
​
A collaborative platform to understand climate change and weather impacts is essential for climate intelligence. This kind of platform could draw from multiple data-driven computational models for different timescales (hours, days, weeks, months, years, decades and century). These computational models are based on local, regional and global climate and weather prediction model data, linked to exposure and vulnerability. A seamless integration of weather and climate products – short-range, medium-range and long-range forecasting - can better support the decision-making process for users by helping them understand the short-, medium- and long-range risks and uncertainties. This platform could target climate related hazard forecasting and scenario-based analytics for wider climate drivers. Additionally, the platform would be developed with consideration for future integration of broader risk and financial and assets modelling, for the purpose of climate-related financial disclosure reporting. Figure 2 shows the conceptual framework for seamless integration of climate and weather information to generate foreseeable future risk information for client decision making.  
Figure 2:  Climate science and risk evaluation for a foreseeable future (T+T, 2020, adopted based on UNEP FI, 2020)
Figure 2: Climate science and risk evaluation for a foreseeable future (T+T, 2020, adopted based on UNEP FI, 2020)
​As climate risk evaluation contains inherent uncertainty, reviewing data on varying timescales provides refinement of decision making. The system could be called a “system of a systems”, where end-user feedback is critical, as are mechanisms to incorporate feedback into the system to continuously improve the need-based information for specific users. 

Conclusions

The importance of accurate and timely weather and climate data for decision making increases. At the same time, different climate change impacts do not occur in isolation. Therefore, disaster and climate action plans must be organised to manage concurrent disaster risk and their compounding and cascading impacts. An integrated weather and climate platform could provide seamless climate induced hazards and risk scenarios based on various temporal scales and their associated uncertainty in the information. This climate change intelligence, combined with hazards assessment, would provide scenario-based risk assessment options for decision making for various climate risks, including extreme weather events. Improved understanding of physical risks relating to climate change could provide greater detail for climate change risk assessments and support an impact assessment of the core elements of a recommended climate-related financial disclosure (governance, strategy, risk management, and metrics and targets). This platform is the first step towards achieving a collaborative platform for financial and physical impact assessments that could provide high-quality, scenario-based consistent reporting in New Zealand.
​
The national and regional climate risk assessment in New Zealand and the IPCC AR6 have given us a fair warning of what is to come. It is now up to us to boldly embark on a visionary re-think and re-design of our future. We have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to re-imagine and build a climate-ready and resilient world. Squandering this has unthinkable consequences.
Download as a PDF

​Footnotes 


[1] Disclosure could likely apply to listed issuers, banks, general insurers, asset owners, all local government organisations, lifeline utility providers and asset managers.

[2] The interaction of climate and weather is demonstrated by an atmospheric-oceanic phenomenon that affects weather worldwide, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The atmospheric motions are also interconnected and nearly continuous: a small-scale atmospheric motion can band together to create larger-scale systems (e.g., convective storms could cause floods, droughts, storms and wildfires).
References 

Fakhruddin Bapon, Peter Gluckman, Anne Bardsley, Georgina Griffiths, Andrew McElroy (2021). Creating resilient communities with medium-range hazard warning systems. Progress in Disaster Science, 2021

GNS (2020). User requirements of RiskScape2.0 software and opportunities for disaster risk research in Aotearoa- New Zealand

​MfE (2019). Ministry for the Environment & Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment. 2019. Climate-related financial disclosures – Understanding your business risks and opportunities related to climate change: Discussion document. Wellington: Ministry for the Environment.

NCCRA (2000). First national climate change risk assessment for New Zealand. https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/assessing-climate-change-risk

NCCRF (2019). Arotakenga Huringa Āhuarangi: A Framework for The National Climate Change Risk Assessment for Aotearoa New Zealand. https://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2019-09/National%20Climate%20Change%20Risk%20Assessment%20Framework%20.pdf

Wetterhall, F. and Di Giuseppe, F. (2018). The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3409–3420, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3409-2018, 
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  • Home
    • Environmental Impact Assessment
    • Social Impact Assessment
    • Strategic Environmental Assessment
    • Community & Stakeholder Engagement
    • Management, Monitoring and Reporting
  • About Us
    • Core Group >
      • Core Group Meeting Minutes
    • Our Partners and Affiliates
    • AGMs
    • Ethics
  • Membership
    • Sign Up for NZAIA Membership
  • Conferences
    • Proceedings from Past Conferences >
      • 2022 - Wellbeing, Sustainability and Impact Assessment: towards more integrated policy-making
      • 2021 - Social Impact Assessment >
        • Posters
        • 2021 Students
      • 2019 - Climate Change >
        • Posters
        • 2019 Students
        • Conference Photos
        • Contact List
      • 2018 - Regional Development
      • 2016 - Strategic Environmental Assessment
      • 2015 - Where to for Impact Assessment?
      • 2014 - Transport Infrastructure
      • 2013 Fresh Water Management
      • 2012 - Mineral Extraction
  • Impact Connector
    • Issue #14 Impact assessment for infrastructure development >
      • Impact assessment for infrastructure development - an introduction
      • Place Matters: The importance of geographic assessment of areas of influence in understanding the social effects of large-scale transport investment in Wellington
      • Unplanned Consequences? New Zealand's experiment with urban (un)planning and infrastructure implications
      • Reflections on infrastructure, Town and Country planning and intimations of SIA in the late 1970s and early 1980s
      • SIA guidance for infrastructure and economic development projects
      • Scoping in impact assessments for infrastructure projects: Reflections on South African experiences
      • Impact Assessment for Pacific Island Infrastructure
    • Issue #13 Health impact assessment: practice issues >
      • Introduction to health impact assessment: practice issues
      • International Health Impact Assessment – a personal view
      • Use of Health Impact Assessment to develop climate change adaptation plans for health
      • An integrated approach to assessing health impacts
      • Assessing the health and social impacts of transport policies and projects
      • Whither HIA in New Zealand….or just wither?
    • Issue #12 Risk Assessment: Case Studies and Approaches >
      • Introduction
      • Risk Assessment and Impact Assessment : A perspective from Victoria, Australia
      • The New and Adaptive Paradigm Needed to Manage Rising Coastal Risks
      • Reflections on Using Risk Assessments in Understanding Climate Change Adaptation Needs in Te Taitokerau Northland
      • Values-Based Impact Assessment and Emergency Management
      • Certainty about Communicating Uncertainty: Assessment of Flood Loss and Damage
      • Improving Understanding of Rockfall Geohazard Risk in New Zealand
      • Normalised New Zealand Natural Disaster Insurance Losses: 1968-2019
      • Houston, We Have a Problem - Seamless Integration of Weather and Climate Forecast for Community Resilience
      • Innovating with Online Data to Understand Risk and Impact in a Data Poor Environment
    • Impact Connector #11 Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation, and Impact Assessment: views from the Pacific >
      • Introduction
      • Climate change adaptation and mitigation, impact assessment, and decision-making: a Pacific perspective
      • Climate adaptation and impact assessment in the Pacific: overview of SPREP-sponsored presentations
      • Land and Sea: Integrated Assessment of the Temaiku Land and Urban Development Project in Kiribati
      • Strategic Environmental Assessment: Rising to the SDG Challenge
      • Coastal Engineering for Climate Change Resilience in Eastern Tongatapu, Tonga
      • Climate-induced Migration in the Pacific: The Role of New Zealand
    • Impact Connector #10 Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation >
      • Introduction
      • Is a “just transition” possible for Māori?
      • Adapting to Climate Change on Scale: Addressing the Challenge and Understanding the Impacts of Asia Mega-Cities
      • How responding to climate change might affect health, for better or for worse
      • Kanuka, Kereru and carbon capture - Assessing the effects of a programme taking a fresh look at the hill and high country land resource
      • Wairoa: Community perceptions of increased afforestation
      • Te Kākahu Kahukura Ecological Restoration project: A story within a story
    • Issue #9 Impacts of Covid-19 >
      • Introduction to Impact Connector Issue 9 – Impact assessment and Covid 19
      • Covid-19 fast-track consenting: climate change legacy key to success
      • Tourism – the long haul ahead
      • Making sense of the impact of Covid-19: planning, politics, and the public good
    • Issue #8 Social Impact Assessment >
      • Challenges for Social Impact Assessment in New Zealand: looking backwards and looking forwards
      • Insights from the eighties: early Social Impact Assessment reports on rural community dynamics
      • Impact Assessment and the Capitals Framework: A Systems-based Approach to Understanding and Evaluating Wellbeing
      • Building resilience in Rural Communities – a focus on mobile population groups
      • Assessing the Impacts of a New Cycle Trail: A Fieldnote
      • The challenges of a new biodiversity strategy for social impact assessment (SIA)
      • “Say goodbye to traffic”? The role of SIA in establishing whether ‘air taxis’ are the logical next step in the evolution of transportation
    • Issue #7 Ecological Impact Assessment >
      • The future of Ecological Impact Assessment in New Zealand
      • Ecological impact assessment and roading projects
      • EcIA and the Resource Management Act
      • Professional Practice and implementation of EcIA
      • EcIA in the Marine Environment
    • Issue #6 Landscape Assessment >
      • Introduction
      • Lives and landscapes: who cares, what about, and does it matter?
      • Regional Landscape Inconsistency
      • Landscape management in the new world order
      • Landscape assessment and the Environment Court
      • Natural character assessments and provisions in a coastal environment
      • The Assessment and Management of Amenity
      • The rise of the THIMBY
      • Landscape - Is there a common understanding of the Common?
    • Issue #5 Cultural Impact Assessment >
      • Introduction
      • Potential of Cultural Impact Assessment
      • The Mitigation Dilemma
      • CIA and decision-making
      • Insights and observations on CIA
      • Achieving sustainability through CIA
      • CIA - Enhancing or diminishing mauri?
      • Strategic Indigenous Impact Assessment?
    • Issue #4 Marine Environment >
      • Introduction
      • Iwi, Impact Assessment and Marine Environment
      • Sea-Bed Mining Application in Taranaki
      • The wreck of the MV Rena
      • High Court RMA Controls on Fishing
      • Initiatives in the Pacific Islands
      • SEA in an NZ context
    • Issue #3 Strategic Environmental Assessment
    • Issue #2
    • Issue #1
  • Resources
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    • IAIA Resources
    • United Nations Guidance
    • Donors Guidelines and Principles
    • Oceania and the Pacific
    • Natural Systems >
      • Biodiversity & Ecosystem Services
      • Agriculture & Food Systems
      • Water Management
    • Social Impact Assessment
    • Health Impact Assessment >
      • Climate Change & Health
      • Air Quality Impact Assessment
    • Cumulative Impact Assessment
    • Community and Stakeholder Engagement
    • Indigenous Peoples
    • Climate Change and Disaster Risk Resilience >
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      • Nature-based Solutions
    • Urban Development
    • Sustainable Development Goals
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